At the Accenture World Match Play in Arizona in late February, the hot news was the return of Tiger Woods. The topic next on most people’s lips was the arrival of Rory McIlroy.

It’s now well over ten years since Tiger burst upon the scene and the golf world is ready for the next mega star to make an appearance. Sergio was the choice for a while and Anthony Kim is the latest young American hope, but Rory McIlroy might be on the verge of having that annoying “next Tiger Woods” label thrust upon him while still only 19. He is certainly the most exciting teenager to hit the fairways since Sergio played that shot from next to a tree at the PGA Championships ten years ago.

McIlroy became the World’s top ranked amateur in 2007 and began the British Open at Carnoustie that year with a three under par 68, the only bogey free round of the day. Turning pro later that year he had 3rd and 4th place finishes in his first three tournaments. The European Tour website shows he finished 95th on the European Order of Merit after only four starts that year, thus avoiding qualifying school.

Last year saw him rise to 36th on the order of merit with six top ten finishes (the best a runners up spot at the Omega European Masters) including four in his last six starts. This hot streak led to him finishing 2008 as the youngest player ever to break into the top 50 of the World rankings. That means he’s ahead of Tiger by at least one measure of progress.

This year, still only 19, he has broken into the world’s top 20 after winning his first European Tour event in Dubai. The Accenture Match Play was his debut on the PGA Tour on American soil. There he reached the quarterfinals before narrowly losing to Geoff Ogilvy, creating a whole new fan base via the US Media on the way. Ernie Els has already declared him “probably… the next number one in the world “ in an interview quoted on the BBC website.

So why is he not “The Next Tiger Woods”?

For the same reason Tiger himself is not, and never was, “The Next Jack Nicklaus”.
There will never be another Jack Nicklaus. Tiger Woods, like Jack was in his prime, is a player great enough to define the game in his generation. He is “The First Tiger Woods”.
Rory McIlroy is thirteen years younger than Tiger. The question is not whether he’s the next Tiger Woods (there will also never be another Tiger) it’s whether he will become good enough to define his generation in golf and challenge Tiger’s supremacy. At this stage of his career it looks like he has a better chance than most.

(Statistics taken from the European Tour Website)